WEATHER FORECASTS

WEATHER FORECASTS
Weather Report for Flooded Areas in Myanmar

Meteorologist
: Marc de Keyser
Contact
: marc.achiel@gmail.com or mobile +32 473 72 76 41
Date : 20 August 2015

Forecast valid for the 20th of August – based on the 19/00utc run

1)Synoptic situation

The low pressure belt that is positioned over the North of India, is further extending to the East. This creates a center of low pressure over the extreme North of the Bay of Bengal. The combination of this low and the moist warm air, creates very active convective cells over the South of Bangladesh and Dakha. Also the extreme West of Myanmar will be affected by this low pressure cell.

The positive influence of the high pressure ridge that influenced favorable the weather over the greatest parts of Myanmar, is further dissipating which will lead to more clouds and areas of precipitation over Myanmar in general.
Along the extreme East of the synoptic map we can depict the deep tropical cyclone that is heading towards the North of the Phillipines and than moving Northwards, direction of Taiwan. This is an active feature with wind speeds exceeding 160-180 km/hr but it is not moving into the SE Asian continent-so no danger for Myanmar.

2)Distribution of rain, showers and thunderstorms:

– between 00-06utc:
Very high amounts of precipitation in the North of the district of Sagaing and Kachin during the first part of the day. As described in the introduction above, very active cells over the North of the Bay of Bengal and along the coast of the district of Rakhaing, especially North of the peninsula of Lay Taung.
Some rain can be found inland of the district of Ayeyarwaddy and over the East of the district of Shan. Also rain along the coasts of the districts of Mon and Tanintharyi.
Most inland regions are dry during the first part of the day.

– between 06-12utc:
During the second part of the day thre is a general spreading out of the precipitation with most heavy precipitation near Minbya, especially along the coastal areas. The precip area from the North of Sagaing moves gradually Southwards and becomes weaker.
However the area of precipitation over the East of the district Shan spreads out towards the West, Inland of Myanmar.
The precipitation over Ayeyarwaddy spreads out Northwards towards the districts of Bago, Magwe and Mandalay.

– between 12-18utc:
In this period most of the inland precip dissipates, only some isolated cells near Magway and over Mon and Kayin remain. However the rain, showers and possible thunderstorms over the NW of Myanmar and near Minbya remain heavy. We can see areas of precip along most of the coastal regions of Myanmar.

– between 18-24utc:
Inland Myanmar is mostly dry in this period, except from some very isolated shwiery outbreaks.
The coastal areas areas however are hit by rain/showers, especially the coastal area just north of Minbya. Also some very active cells to the South of Yebyu on the district of Tanintharyi.

 

2)Warnings

* Very high amounts of precipitation North and along the coastal areas of Minbya. *

 

Meteogram Pressure  Relative Humidity Cloud Cover Precipitation Accumulated Precipitatio Satellite Image Surface Wind 80m AGL Wind

Temperature

3) Forecast for different areas.

*Province of Chin (Hakha: 22.6/93.6)*

  • Weather : Remaining very cloudy to temporarily completely overcast with outbreaks of (slight) rain/showers. After 12utc rain can become temporarily moderate.
  • precipitation : less than 1mm
  • wind at surface :S 8-10kt gradually backing to SE to ESE 4-6kt
  • outlook tomorrow (21 Aug 2015) : Overcast and grey with most likely misty/foggy conidtions and fom time to time slight rain or drizzle.

    meteogramwrfHAKHA

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* Province of Magway (Mon Stream: 20.2/94.4) *

  • Weather : Very cloudy with a broken layer of Stratocumulus around 2-3000ft with some short sunny spells. Mainly remaining dry.
  • precipitation : no precipitation registered.
  • wind at surface :SW 8-10kt temporarily increasing to 10-15kt. After 18utc becoming weak from variable directions.
  • outlook tomorrow (21 Aug 2015) :  Clouds will thicken up and significant precipitation is expected-prevailingly poor conditions.

 

meteogramwrfMONS

 

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* Province Sagaing (Kalewa: 23.2/94.3) *

  • Weather : Very cloudy to temporarily overcast with hardly any sunny spells. Heavy precipitation is expected to the regions North of Kalewa but over Kalewa there is almost continuously rain/showers
  • precipitation : a total of 20-30mm
  • wind at surface : weak from variable directions – no significant change
  • outlook tomorrow (21 Aug 2015) : Similar conditions continue: very cloudy to overcast with outbreaks of rain/showers-no significant change.

    meteogramwrfKALW

 

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* Province of Rakhine (Minbya: 20.4/93.3) *

  • Weather : fPoor conditions prevail: very cloudy to ovecast with rain and rain showers/thundery outbreaks – poor visibility – no significant change.
  • precipitation : in total of 40-50mm can fall but more towrds the coast and to the North much more is possible
  • wind at surface : S 5-10kt with possible gusts up to 15kt – no significant change
  • outlook tomorrow (21 Aug2015) : still very cloudy to overcast with a lot of rain/in total more than 50mm
meteogramwrfMINB
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* Province of Ayeyarwaddy (Maubin: 16.7/95.6) *

  • Weather : Mostly very cloudy with showery outbreaks, changing in more continuous rain after 9utc
  • precipitation : A total of about 14-18mm with most rain falling between 10 and 14utc
  • wind at surface : WSW to W 10-15kt gusting 20-25kt – no significant change.
  • outlook tomorrow : more clouds and more rain will fall
meteogramwrfMAUB

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* Bagan: 21.2/94.9 (Airport) – Airfield forecast *

  • Weather :Mix of sunny spells and very cloudy periods, remaining dry. Gradually formation of convective clouds which dissipate again after 12utc. There is no precipitation or shower expected in this area.
  • Clouds: 4-6/8 StSc between 1500-2000ft and some patches of Altocumulus around 10000ft. Formation of 4-6/8 Cumulus with base around 2000ft lifting to 3000ft.
  • Visibility :good.
  • Precipitation : 0mm
  • wind at surface : SSW to SW 20-25kt gusting 30kt – becoming 10-15kt gusting S 20-25kt
  • wind at 1000ft : SW 15-20kt
  • wind at 3000ft : SSW later WSW 25-30kt
  • wind at 5000ft : SSW laterWSW 20kt
  • Turbulence : light to mod becmg light
  • Outlook for Sunday 21 August : More clouds and most likely again outbreaks of (light) rain or showers..
meteogramwrfBAGAN

Remarks – Explanation of the Maps

  • a meteogram of each location in the forecast. This shows you the evolution of the different parameters: //clouds, precipitation, dew point, temperature, CAPE, Moisture and wind at each level//
  • Accum Precip : shows you the accumulated precipitation for the time period that is indicated
  • mslp : surface pressure distribution: low and high pressure systems with isobars
  • rh2m : surface relative humidity at 2m: blue areas show 100 procent rel hum: fog possibility
  • tmp2mPL032 : surface temperature at 2m= max temp and min temp
  • wind : surface wind in km/hr
  • wind80m : wind at 80mrAGL=low level flights!
  • satellite image : infra red
  • satellite image : visible
  • total cloudiness