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Satellite Image

Meteorologist : Marc de Keyser
Contact : marc.achiel@gmail.com or mobile +32 473 72 76 41
Date : 20 August 2015

 

Forecast valid for the 20th of August – based on the 19/00utc run
1) Synoptic situation

The low pressure belt that is positioned over the North of India, is further extending to the East. This creates a center of low pressure over the extreme North of the Bay of Bengal. The combination of this low and the moist warm air, creates very active convective cells over the South of Bangladesh and Dakha. Also the extreme West of Myanmar will be affected by this low pressure cell.

The positive influence of the high pressure ridge that influenced favorable the weather over the greatest parts of Myanmar, is further dissipating which will lead to more clouds and areas of precipitation over Myanmar in general.

Along the extreme East of the synoptic map we can depict the deep tropical cyclone that is heading towards the North of the Phillipines and than moving Northwards, direction of Taiwan. This is an active feature with wind speeds exceeding 160-180 km/hr but it is not moving into the SE Asian continent-so no danger for Myanmar.

 

2) Distribution of rain, showers and thunderstorms:

– between 00-06utc:
Very high amounts of precipitation in the North of the district of Sagaing and Kachin during the first part of the day. As described in the introduction above, very active cells over the North of the Bay of Bengal and along the coast of the district of Rakhaing, especially North of the peninsula of Lay Taung.
Some rain can be found inland of the district of Ayeyarwaddy and over the East of the district of Shan. Also rain along the coasts of the districts of Mon and Tanintharyi.
Most inland regions are dry during the first part of the day.

– between 06-12utc:
During the second part of the day thre is a general spreading out of the precipitation with most heavy precipitation near Minbya, especially along the coastal areas. The precip area from the North of Sagaing moves gradually Southwards and becomes weaker.
However the area of precipitation over the East of the district Shan spreads out towards the West, Inland of Myanmar.
The precipitation over Ayeyarwaddy spreads out Northwards towards the districts of Bago, Magwe and Mandalay.

– between 12-18utc:
In this period most of the inland precip dissipates, only some isolated cells near Magway and over Mon and Kayin remain. However the rain, showers and possible thunderstorms over the NW of Myanmar and near Minbya remain heavy. We can see areas of precip along most of the coastal regions of Myanmar.

– between 18-24utc:
Inland Myanmar is mostly dry in this period, except from some very isolated shwiery outbreaks.
The coastal areas areas however are hit by rain/showers, especially the coastal area just north of Minbya. Also some very active cells to the South of Yebyu on the district of Tanintharyi.

 

2) Warnings
* Very high amounts of precipitation North and along the coastal areas of Minbya. *

 

Satellite Image